NFL 2023 Week Super Wild Card Round – Odds, Predictions & Picks

Super Wild Card weekend is here with three games in the AFC and NFC. The weather will be a factor, with wind and cold expected in both Kansas City and Buffalo. There’s plenty on the line as Dallas hosts the Packers trying to realize their dream of getting to the Super Bowl. The Eagles have struggled for weeks and now take on the Bucs in Tampa, and the surprising Browns take on CJ Stroud and the Texans. We break it all down.

Odds provided by Fanduel

Cleveland Browns

This was not the way the Browns drew up the season, but here they are with a top-rated defense and riding the arm of (checks notes) Joe Flacco, who’s moment in the sun was 12 years ago with the Ravens. The Browns have the defense that can close down the throwing lanes for Texans star rookie QB CJ Stroud and Flacco knows not to make any mistakes. The Browns are better than people think.

Injury Report:

• Juan Thornhill - Q
• Greg Newsome II - Q
• Dustin Hopkins - P
• Marquis Goodwin - Q
• Mike Ford - Q
• Myles Garrett - P
• Amari Cooper - P

Houston Texans

Stroud has been amazing since taking over the Texans. He shows poise and accuracy that don’t fit his age and experience level. Also, running back Devin Singletary is a special talent coming out of the backfield. First-year coach DeMeco Ryans deserves all the praise for energizing this franchise. Cleveland beat the Texans 36-22 three weeks ago, but Stroud didn’t play. But I think Cleveland is just a better team. 

Injury Report: 

• Robert Woods - Q
• Jonathan Greenard - Q
• Noah Brown - Q

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have to be reeling after losing out on an AFC East title to the Bills. QB Tua Tagovailoa still leads the No. 1 ranked Dolphins defense, but injuries have started to derail how the Dolphins can attack and Tua just can’t do it all by himself. The Chiefs beat the Dolphins over in Germany 21-14 in Week 9. The weather in KC supposed to be in the mid-10s with big wind, that hurts the Dolphins more than the Chiefs. The total started at 40.5 and continues to drop.

Injury report: 

• Bradley Chubb - O
• Xavien Howard - O
• Jerome Baker - O
• Andrew Van Ginkel - O
• Jevon Holland - Q
• Raheem Mostert - Q
• Jaylen Waddle - Q

Kansas City Chiefs

No, the Chiefs don’t look like the team that won the Super Bowl last year. They don’t have the same explosiveness on offense, and without Tyreek Hill (who will be with the Dolphins) they don’t have the deep threat to spread the field. When things break down, they rely too much on Patrick Mahomes to run and make plays or find Travis Kelce. It will be enough against Miami, but bigger foes await.

Injury report:

• Kadarius Toney - Q
• Rashee Rice - Q
• Donovan Smith - Q
• L’Jarius Sneed -   Q

Pittsburgh Steelers

How did the Steelers pull this off? Somehow they’ve gotten into the playoffs with a third-string quarterback leading the way. Mason Rudolph has been good each of the last three weeks, but his bubble is about to pop. The Steelers don’t have the defense to corral Josh Allen for the Bills. Plus, Pittsburgh is likely without star defensive lineman TJ Watt for this one. He led the NFL with 19 sacks. Pittsburgh is just happy to be here.

Injury report:

• TJ Watt - O
• Trenton Thompson - Q
• Minkah Fitzpatrick - P

Buffalo Bills

At one point this season the Bills were 6-6 and everyone thought their Super Bowl window was closing fast. Instead, the Bills have surged to five straight wins, including a huge 21-14 win in Miami to win the division and are the 2 seed. The Bills are what they are, a high-risk, high-reward team led by quarterback Allen. Running back James Cook made the Pro Bowl for the first time. The spread is high, but I think the Bills keep rolling.

Injury report:

• Gabe Davis - Q
• Ty Johnson - Q

Green Bay Packers

Give the Packers some credit for winning their last three games to get in. New quarterback Jordan Love hasn’t been great, but he has made plays when he had to. Aaron Jones is really the difference maker for the Packers offense.

He’s been hurt a lot this season, but he averages almost five yards a carry. Rashan Gary leads the defense with nine sacks. But the Packers only win this game if the Cowboys collapse.

Injury report:

• Romeo Doubs - Q
• Christian Watson - Q
• Isaiah McDuffie - Q
• AJ Dillon - Q

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys in the playoffs have become A Thing in the NFL. Dallas always seems boosted up during the regular season only to fall apart in the playoffs. Already there’s talk if Mike McCarthy loses this game, he will need a new job on Monday. The Cowboy Universe can relax in this one. This is a good match-up for them. They are much more talented than the Packers and experienced. Dallas wins this one going away.

Injury report:

• Zack Martin - P
• Stephon Gilmore - Q
• Tyler Smith - Q

Philadelphia Eagles

The biggest mystery in the NFL is what happened to the Eagles in the last six weeks. They lost five of their last six games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts looks timid and slow, the running game evaporated and the defense suddenly forgot how to play. The Eagles were in the Super Bowl last year. They may have problems they can’t fix right now, but Philly spanked the Bucs back in Week 3, and the Bucs are not a good team. Philly gets back on track in Tampa.

Injury report:

• AJ Brown - Q
• Jalen Hurts - P
• Sydney Brown - O
• DeVonta Smith - Q
• Darius Slay - Q
• D’Andre Swift - Q

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs won the mess that was the NFC South, getting by the Panthers in an ugly 9-0 triumph in Week 18. Baker Mayfield has played well, but he’s banged up with a rib injury and got hurt again in Carolina. The Bucs defense is still good up front, but that’s right where the Eagles are good too. I know the Eagles have issues, but this looks like a win for the Birds.

Injury report:

• KJ Britt - Q
• Rakim Jarrett - Q