NFL: Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Odds, Prediction & Picks

After a thrilling win over the Rams, the Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Round Sunday at Ford Field at 3 p.m. with the winner advancing to the NFC Championship Game. The Lions whipped the Bucs 20-6 in the regular season, but so far regular season rematches in the playoffs haven’t been good for the team who won the first time. In the Wild Card round, teams that lost the first time, went 2-1 in the rematch. Detroit hasn’t been in an NFC Championship Game since 1992.

Jared Goff Week 6 @ TB:

- 30 Completions
- 353 Passing Yards (Season High!)
- 2 Pass TDs

What do you think his stat line will be this weekend?

📺: @NFL pic.twitter.com/FkMd7u7ztm

— Gamble Online Michigan (@GambleonlineMI) January 17, 2024

Odds provided by BetMGM.

Lions 

The Football Gods were good to the Lions on Wild Card weekend. With the Cowboys choking against the Packers, the Lions are home again for the Divisional Round and play the Bucs, who went 9-8 in the regular season to win the woeful NFC South, but took apart the Eagles Monday night. Detroit has to deal with the big emotions after the win over the Rams. They beat the Bucs 20-6 in Week 6, but only ran for 40 yards. The Lions are favored and are better, but the Bucs are dangerous.

Injury Report: Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta wore a brace on his injured knee in the win over the Rams. He wasn’t quite as good as we’ve seen, but he still made an impact. The only injury to keep an eye on for the Lions is wide receiver Kalif Raymond. He missed the Rams game with a knee injury, and there was some hope that if the Lions won, he’d be OK for the later rounds.

Bucs

The fourth-seeded Bucs have to feel like they’re playing with house money now. No one expected a lot from Tampa, and now they’re one win away from the NFC Championship game. Quarterback Baker Mayfield runs hot and cold, but he was hot against the Eagles. Still, that win comes with an asterisk, because the Eagles were a shambles. Rachaad White is good two-way threat out of the backfield, and Mike Evans is a top WR. The defense is good against the run, but has struggled against the pass.

Injury Report: Mayfield is definitely not 100 percent. He suffered bruised ribs in the loss to the Saints in Week 17 and hurt his ankle in the win over Carolina in Week 18. But he’s going to play for sure. The Bucs designated defensive tackle Mike Greene to come back from injured reserve Wednesday. Tampa is a full go for Sunday.

Both the Bucs and Lions are 12-6 against the spread this season. The last four Buc games have all hit the under.

Tampa Bay is 4-3 in Divisional Round games all-time, the Lions are 1-2 in Divisional Round games in the Super Bowl Era.

The Lions are 7-1 at home in their last eight games. Tampa has covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games.

After setting a record for highest ticket prices ever for a Wild Card game on the resale market, the Lions are doing it again for the Divisional Round.

Sunday’s win over the Rams was a catharsis for a franchise who hadn’t won a playoff game in 32 years, but they can’t be satisfied. This is a wonderful opportunity against a Bucs team that has some weaknesses.

Detroit beat the Bucs 20-6 in Week 6, and that was without David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield. Jared Goff carried the load throwing for 353 yards. That’s not really what the Lions like to do. They like to run the ball behind their great offensive line, put Goff in good situations to pass and capitalize. 

Tampa Bay has to be feeling confident after trashing the Eagles. The Bucs looked faster on offense and dominating on defense. The X factor is Mayfield he’s more mobile than he looks and his ability to move in the pocket is something the Lions have to prepare for.

I don’t see this as a shootout like the Lions-Rams game was. I could see the Lions having a bit of an emotional letdown after the win over the Rams, and maybe the Bucs take a lead early. But the Lions are the better team, playing at home, and I think they dominate the second half. I’m leery of the six-point spread, because I could see a late Bucs TD making it like 20-17, so I’m riding the Lions moneyline.

Lions ML (-275) | BetMGM