NFL: Lions vs. Bears - Odds, Prediction & Picks

After winning a thriller against the Chargers, the Lions return home for the first of two division games in five days hosting the 3-7 Chicago Bears Sunday at 1 p.m. at Ford Field. Detroit running back David Montgomery leads the NFL in yards per game at 83.5 and his 75-yard TD run against LA was the Lions longest run in 12 years. The Bears are just 3-7 and have struggled offensively but hope to get starting quarterback Justin Fields back from an injury.

Odds provided by BetMGM.

Detroit Lions

The Lions signed former Seahawks first round pick Bruce Irvin this week to help with a pass rush that has only produced 21 sacks. The Lions were bold against the Chargers going for it on fourth down five times and converting four, that’s the most by a Lion team since 2000. Detroit won both meetings with the Bears last year, but Chicago has won seven of the last 10 meetings

Injury Report: The Lions are still extremely healthy after their bye week and coming off the win over the Chargers. The Lions placed OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai on injured reserve Tuesday. DE Levi Onwuzurike and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones are questionable. 

Bears

Chicago coach Matt Eberflus is expected to make a decision on who would start at QB mid-week, but all signs point to Fields coming back from an injury. Maybe that’s a good thing for the Lions. Fields started the first six games of the season throwing for 1,201 yards, but the Bears went 1-5. Fields has been sacked at the second highest rate per dropback of any QB in the NFL at 12.9 percent. He looks to run quickly and often seems unsure of what to do. Undrafted rookie free agent Tyson Bagent has started the last four games and gone 2-2, but thrown six interceptions.

Injury Report: Fields was questionable, but the Bears had a mini-bye after playing last Thursday, and all signs are he will probably play. DB Terell Smith, G Nate Davis, LB Tremaine Edwards and RB Khari Blasingame all had questionable designations.

This is highest point spread between the Bears and Lions in over five years. The last 10 games between these two teams has been decided by an average of 8.2 points.

The Lions are 7-2 for the first time since 2014, before that, it was 1993.

Chicago is one of the rare NFL teams that has hit the over more than the under. The Bears are 6-4 in totals, but their last three games have all hit the under.

We expected a run-and-gun game for the Lions in LA and we got it, with the Lions getting away with a three-point win. This game will not have that same kind of vibe. The Bears like to run the ball and put their quarterbacks, whether it’s Fields or Bagent in manageable third down situations. They do have some offensive weapons in wide receiver DJ Moore and a good tight end in Cole Kmet, but neither Bagent or Fields is accurate.

The Lions are in great shape. The offense is humming behind quarterback Jared Goff, even though the offensive line is the real MVP so far, the Lions gashed the Chargers for 200 yards rushing and we’re getting to see what the Lions look like with Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield together.

Detroit is just the better team with a lot more confidence, but 10 points is a lot to hand the Bears (other sportsbooks have it 9.5). I love the under in this game, because I know the Bears just aren’t going to score a lot of points. The question is whether the Lions will win by a large margin.

Five of the Lions seven wins have been by double digits, so while I really do love the under here, I am also comfortable taking the Lions to cover. The Bears quarterbacks are mistake prone, whether it’s Fields being inaccurate or Bagent throwing interceptions. Don’t be surprised if the Lions get a defensive TD in this one. Then it’s a quick turnaround before the country sees the Lions on Thanksgiving.

Lions +10 (-110) | BetMGM