NBA Expert Picks and Best Bets |March 6

It’s time to get back to winning on Wednesday night in the NBA and that means focusing on the over/under in Atlanta. The Hawks are without Trae Young. The Cavs are without Donovan Mitchell, but have the sportsbooks swung too far down on the total? We also look at the Clippers taking on Houston playing their second game in a row, and a showdown in San Fran with the Bucks and Warriors.

Over 216 (-112) at FanDuel

We made some bank last week when we saw that Michigan sportsbooks hadn’t corrected for the absence of Trae Young in the Hawks over/under total. But now, I think they’ve overcorrected too much.

Cleveland is playing for the second night in a row after stunning the Celtics with a big fourth quarter comeback. They don’t have Donovan Mitchell with a knee injury but they average 114 a game and allow 109, which is second best in the NBA.

Atlanta still ranks fifth in the NBA in scoring at 120 a game, but they allow 122. My thought is that on second night of back-to-backs, defense is what goes away first. So I feel the Hawks will score a lot and the Cavs will be forced to keep up. I love the over.

Clippers -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The Clippers were the NBA’s hottest team before the All-Star break, but are only 3-4 since the break, including that bad loss to the Lakers when they blew a big lead. LA is 31-29 against the spread. They’re without Russell Westbrook for a while with a broken hand, but he was coming off the bench anyway.

Houston is playing the second game of a back-to-back at home. They are 3-8 this season on no rest. Alperen Sengun had 45 in the win over the Spurs Tuesday night. Fred VanVleet has made 11 threes in his last two games.

The Clippers have too much firepower for the Rockets with Kawhi Leonard and PG-13. Houston is third in the NBA in three-point shooting while the Rockets are second to last. Houston is a fun team, but LA is much better.

Bucks +4 (-108) at DraftKings

The line is like this because Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable with a sore Achilles, but this might be the type of game where injuries don’t matter. Golden State is still a marquee NBA franchise with Steph Curry and company.

Even without Giannis though….the Bucks are 6-0 since the All-Star Break, and during this streak have won games by an average of 16 points. They’re 8-2 in last 10 games against the spread. Damian Lillard, the All-Star Game MVP, has been letting it fly. He’s a high-volume streak shooter and right now everything is dropping.

Golden State is 5-2 since the break, but coming off a 52-point loss to the Celtics, and their homecourt mystique is gone. They’re only 16-15 at home. They have a five-game lead for the last Play-In Tournament spot in the West, but the Bucks are the better team right now, even without Giannis take the points.